Employment Situation in Third Quarter 2008

Employment

Preliminary estimates show that employment grew by 57,800 in the third quarter this year. This was lower than the gains of 71,400 in the preceding quarter and 58,600 in the third quarter of 2007.

2.   With a strong pipeline of building projects, construction employment grew strongly by 16,400 in the third quarter of 2008, but lower than the record 22,400 gains in the previous quarter. Amid weaker external demand, employment in manufacturing grew by 4,900, half the increase in the previous quarter. Services broadly held steady, adding 36,200 workers, lower than the gains of 38,300 in the previous quarter but higher than 34,100 in the third quarter of 2007.

 

Table 1: Employment

(In Thousands)

	Employment Change					Employment Level as at Sep 2008 p
	3Q 07	4Q 07	1Q 08	2Q 08	3Q 08p
Total*	58.6	62.5	73.2	71.4	57.8	2,933.2
Manufacturing	12.4	10.9	11.8	10.1	4.9	593.6
Construction	11.3	12.7	14.5	22.4	16.4	349.2
Services	34.1	38.5	46.5	38.3	36.2	1,970.6

^P: Preliminary estimates

*: Data for the three major sectors do not add up to the total as the latter includes agriculture, fishing, quarrying, utilities and sewerage & waste management.

Retrenchment

3.   Preliminary estimates show that 2,000 workers were retrenched in the third quarter of 2008, up from 1,798 in the previous quarter and 1,827 in the third quarter of 2007.

4.   Most of the retrenched workers came from manufacturing which laid off 1,500 workers, mainly from the electronics industry. Another 500 workers were laid off from the services industries.

 

 

Table 2: Retrenchment

 

	3Q 07	4Q 07	1Q 08	2Q 08	3Q 08P
Total*	1,827	1,966	2,274	1,798	2,000
Manufacturing	1,254	1,266	1,724	1,216	1,500
Construction	7	5	2	15	-
Services	566	695	543	567	500

^P: Preliminary estimates

*: Data for the three major sectors may not add up to the total as the latter includes agriculture, fishing, quarrying, utilities and sewerage & waste management.

‘-‘: nil or negligible

Unemployment

5.   After rising for two consecutive quarters, the overall unemployment rate remained at a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in September 2008, unchanged from June 2008 but higher than 1.7% in September 2007. Among residents, the unemployment rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 3.3% in September 2008 from 3.1% in June 2008 and 2.4% a year ago, amid a rise in resident labour supply.

 

Table 3: Unemployment Rate

 

         ^P:  Preliminary estimates

6.   On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the overall unemployment rate declined from 2.8% in June 2008 to 1.9% in September 2008, as students who looked for work during the mid-year school vacation returned to school and this year's batch of tertiary graduates who looked for jobs in the earlier quarter started to secure employment. Among the resident labour force, the non-adjusted unemployment rate was 2.8% in September 2008, also lower than 4.0% in the previous quarter. An estimated 56,000 residents were unemployed in September 2008. The seasonally adjusted figure was 65,400.

More Information

7.   Information on data sources and coverage, as well as definitions of key concepts used in the report is in the attached Explanatory Notes. The preliminary data estimates are available online at the Ministry of Manpower's website. A more detailed breakdown of the preliminary estimates will be released in the Economic Survey of Singapore, Third Quarter 2008.

8.   The above is a statistical release of the Manpower Research and Statistics Department of the Ministry.

Upcoming Publications

9.   The Ministry's Manpower Research and Statistics Department will be releasing the report on the Labour Market, Third Quarter 2008 on 15 December 2008.

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Explanatory Notes

Employment

Source
Administrative records. The self-employed component is estimated from the Labour Force Survey.

Coverage
The employment data comprises all persons in employment i.e. employees and the self–employed. However, it excludes males who are serving their 2-year full-time national service liability in the Singapore Armed Forces, Police and Civil Defence Forces.

Data on the number of local (also known as resident) employees are compiled from the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Board's administrative records of active contributors defined as local employees who have at least one CPF contribution paid for him/her. A local (also known as resident) employee is any Singapore citizen or Permanent Resident who is employed by an employer under a contract of service or other agreement entered into in Singapore. Every local employee and his/her employer are required to make monthly contributions to the CPF which is a compulsory savings scheme to provide workers financial security in old age and helps meet the needs of healthcare, home-ownership, family protection, and asset enhancement.

Data on foreigners working in Singapore are compiled from administrative records of foreigners on valid work passes issued by the Ministry of Manpower. Foreigners can work in Singapore only if they have valid work passes issued by the Ministry of Manpower.

The number of self-employed residents is estimated from the Labour Force Survey. The self-employed comprises persons aged 15 years and over who are own account workers, employers or contributing family workers.

Concepts and Definitions

Employment change refers to the difference in the employment level at the end of the reference period compared with the end of the preceding period.

Uses and Limitations
This data series allows users to identify individual industries where employment is growing or stagnating. An analysis of the data over time also helps in understanding the impact of economic cyclical and structural changes on the demand for workers. Detailed data are published in the quarterly Labour Market Report.

The change in employment over time is the net result of increases and decreases in employment i.e. net of inflows and outflows of workers. Users should not mistake an increase in employment as gross job creation.

Unemployment

Source
Labour Force Survey


Coverage
The survey covers private households on the main island of Singapore. It excludes workers living in construction worksites, dormitories and workers' quarters at the workplace and persons commuting from abroad to work in Singapore. To achieve full coverage of the labour force in Singapore, data on residents (also known as locals, i.e. Singapore citizens and permanent residents) from the survey are combined with foreign workforce data compiled from work passes issued by the Ministry of Manpower.

Concepts and Definitions
Unemployed Persons refer to persons aged 15 years and over who were without work during the survey reference period but were available for work and were actively looking for a job. They include persons who were not working but were taking steps to start their own business or taking up a new job after the reference period.

Unemployment Rate is defined as the percentage of unemployed persons to the total number of economically active persons (i.e. employed and unemployed persons) aged 15 years and over.

Uses and Limitations
The unemployment rate is probably the best-known measure of the labour market. It measures unutilised labour supply and is useful in the study of the economic cycle as it is closely related to the fluctuations in the business cycle.

Unemployment can have frictional, cyclical and structural elements. As it takes time for job seekers and employers to find a match, there is always a certain level of frictional unemployment due to people changing jobs and from new entrants looking for work for the first time. Unemployment can also be structural e.g. arising from a mismatch between the job seekers and the job openings available. With structural unemployment, even if job vacancies and job seekers coexist in the labour market, they may not be matched over a long period of time. Finally, unemployment can be cyclical. This occurs when there is a general decline in demand for manpower as aggregate demand for goods and services fall in the event of a cyclical downturn. Unlike structural and frictional unemployment where the problem is in matching job openings with job seekers, cyclical unemployment occurs when there are not enough jobs to go around.

Unemployment can vary due to changes in demand or supply of manpower. It can decline if more people succeed in securing employment or when the unemployed persons stop to look for a job and leave the labour force either temporarily (e.g. to take up training) or permanently (e.g. to retire). Conversely, unemployment may rise due to increase in labour supply from new entrants or re-entrants to the labour market. It will also rise if more people quit their jobs to look for alternative employment or if there is an increase in layoffs.

Retrenchment

Source
Labour Market Survey

Coverage
The survey covers private sector establishments (each with at least 25 employees) and the public sector.

Concepts and Definitions
Retrenchment refers to the termination of employment of a permanent employee due to redundancy. In the public sector, it includes those who left service under the Special Resignation Scheme that allows redundant non-deployable Civil Service or Statutory Board employees to leave their organisations with compensation.

Uses and Limitations
Data on retrenchment are useful in the analysis of re-structuring or ailing industries. Detailed data are published in the quarterly Labour Market Report.

The number of persons retrenched (flow) should not be confused with persons unemployed (stock). Not all persons retrenched will be unemployed as some will be re-employed or decide to leave the workforce. Similarly, the pool of unemployed persons comes not only from retrenchments, but also from new entrants to the labour force such as school leavers and the economically inactive who decide to re-join the workforce.